That's exactly what I was saying when I was talking about predicting behavior ahead of time. Imo, it works like this:
Each of us, when trying to make a decision with will weigh the the pains and pleasures of each choice and make a decision. When it is definite that a pain or pleasure will occur from a certain action, we don't need to take into account probability. That is, the probability for the pleasure or pain = 100%. (For instance, there is a definite 100% chance that if I put my hand on a hot burner, there will be pain.)And if the probability is 100% for both choices, only the intensity of the pleasure or pain itself affects your decision.
We don't often know for a certainty what pleasures and pains will be produced by a given choice though, and this is where probability comes in. When making decisions each one of us internally factors in the probability that a pleasure or pain will occur. So now we don't use pleasure and pain to make decisions, we use risk and opportunity. Where risk is the intensity of a painful event multiplied by the probability that that event will happen. Similarly, opportunity is the intensity of a pleasurable event multipled by the probability that that event will happen. For example, say I'm walking down the street and see a $20 on the ground, the pleasure pain scenario would be as follows (just an arbitrary 1-10 rating, where 10 = highest intensity of emotion, probability 0 to 1 instead of 0 - 100%):
--Choice 1 - pick up the $20 and keep it--
Opportunities (Intensity * Probability)
Pleasure of Feeling Lucky (6 * 1) = 6
Pleasure of Deciding what to spend it on (7 * 1) = 7
Pleasure of buying and using whatever I decide = (9 * .6) = 5.4
= 6 + 7 + 5.4 = 18.4
Risks (Intensity * Probability)
Pain of Guilt for not turning it into the police station (4 * .6) = 2.4
Pain of Having someone see me pocket it and think less of me (7 *.3) = 2.1
= 4.5
So, Pleasure - Pain of Choice 1 = 18.4 - 4.5 =13.9
Choice 2 - pick up the $20 and take it to the police station
Opportunities
Pleasure of feeling proud of myself (4, .8) = 3.2
Pleasure of feeling the societal pat on the head (6, .5) = 3
= 6.2
Risks
Pain of regret of not getting pleasure out of the things I could have bought (6, .6) = 3.6
Pain of feeling I did something to avoid pain (of guilt) rather than to seek pleasure (of buying) (4, .9) = 3.6
= 7.2
So, pleasure - pain of choice 2 = -1. So, since Pleasure - Pain of choice 1 was 13.9, I'd choose choice 1 and keep the $20 for myself. (Which I would.)
I've written up 4 surveys and given them to my mom and sister to test whether this can quantitatively predict behavior ahead of time. What I did was give them two lists of 5 things and had them rate them, not using the same number twice. I had them label 1 to 5 how good these foods sound right now: bread, cheese, apple, tomato, and carrot. Then I had them label 1 to 5 how good these activities sound right now: reading, watching tv, jogging, doing the laundry, doing a crossword puzzle. (I also weighted the lists against each other -- how much more does the person like food than activities or vice versa, but ended up not using the values since the lists weighed about the same)
I then asked if they had to, right now, do one of the two following pairs, which would it be. (For instance: If you have to, right now, Eat a Carrot and then Watch TV OR Eat an apple and Read a book, which would you do?)
Based on just their rankings of items in each individual list, I was able to predict their choice for the combined items 72% (13/18)of the time for the adding method shown above, and 80% (17/21) of the time for a multiplication method I use. That's pretty damn good.
The seeking pleasure vs. avoiding pain principle can also be seen quantitatively. Say for a decision, Choice 1 gives me values of Opportunity = 12, Risk = 4, so pleasure - pain =8; Choice 2 gives me values of Opportunity = 14, Risk = 5, so pleasure - pain = 9. So, most people (those who seek pleasure AND avoid pain) would choose Choice 2 since since its pleasure - pain value is higher.(9 to 8) Pain avoiders, though, would choose Choice 1 since it has a lower risk value (4 to 5). I wonder then if there's people out there who's decision is only based on pleasure. (They'd choose choice 2 because it has a higher pleasure potential than choice 1 (14 to 12).) This isn't synonomous with hedonism and harming others, because hedonism and harming others doesn't give most people pleasure. (exception noted, Spankling) Maybe this is happiness --> only seeking pleasure. If so, then happy people need to scoot there asses over, cause I want a seat on the bench.
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I've slapped my email on my sig if anyone wants to shoot the shit about this or anything else, but on yahoo's dime.
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I ate a hooker half a bottle of knife.